Cocoa prices rose for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, with December ICE NY cocoa closing up 29 points (+0.52%) and December ICE London cocoa up 22 points (+0.53%). This increase comes amid concerns over dry conditions in the Ivory Coast, which may stress crops and lead to reduced cocoa output for the 2026/27 season, potentially impacting global supply.
Data shows increased cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, with exports reaching 2.16 million metric tons (MMT) for the current marketing year, an 18.7% gain compared to the previous year. However, early assessments indicate a projected decline in the upcoming crop season to approximately 1.8 MMT, down 18% from 2.2 MMT in 2025/26, due to adverse weather conditions and disease affecting crop quality.
In Ghana, estimated cocoa production for the 2026/27 crop year is projected to drop to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons, down from 750,000 MT in 2025/26, influenced by aging farms and environmental factors. This potential decrease in output from both leading cocoa producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, is fueling bullish sentiment in the cocoa market.
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