Cocoa prices have declined significantly, with December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) down 0.30% to -$17 and London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) down 0.57% to -$24 amid oversupply concerns from the Ivory Coast. As of today, farmers have shipped 2.18 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa during the current marketing year from October 1, 2025, to September 27, 2026, which is a 19.8% increase compared to the previous year.
The Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer and reported a notable harvest of 2.06 MMT from June 2025 to June 2026, rising by 30% from 1.58 MMT the previous year. However, forecasts of below-normal rainfall could reduce crop yields in the upcoming 2026/27 season. On the downside, ICE cocoa inventories reached a 2.25-year high at 3,437,710 bags last Wednesday, contributing to downward pressure on prices.
In Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer, the Cocoa Board has estimated a 13% decline in the 2026/27 crop to 650,000 metric tons compared to 750,000 MT in the preceding year, which may support cocoa prices. Overall, concerns surrounding potential weather impacts from the El Niño phenomenon also contribute to market volatility and future supply uncertainties.
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