As of October 2, 2023, sugar prices are rising, with October NY world sugar #11 increasing by 2.63% to $17.99 and December London ICE white sugar #5 up 1.47% to $508.60. These prices reflect a one-week high for London sugar, influenced by projections of a global sugar deficit.
On September 1, the International Sugar Organization projected a global sugar deficit of 200,000 MT for the 2026/27 period, contrasting with a surplus of 1.1 MMT for 2025/26. Thailand’s sugar production is expected to drop by 17% in 2026/27, while Brazil’s output could fall by 3% due to farmers prioritizing ethanol production amid rising crude oil prices.
India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall this year is 12% below normal, potentially impacting its sugar output, prompting the Directorate General of Foreign Trade to allow 1 MMT of raw sugar imports before October 31. Demand concerns linger, with October NY sugar contract open interest suggesting a potential delivery of 1.8 MMT, signaling weak market demand.
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