Barrick Gold: A Preview of Q4 Earnings Expectations

• Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, February 14th, before market open.
• The consensus EPS estimate is $0.22 and the consensus revenue estimate is $3.14B.
• Over the last 2 years, GOLD has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 63% of the time.
• Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 8 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 2 downward.
• The company on November 2 reported better than expected Q3 adjusted earnings, as gold production and realized prices rose from the year-earlier quarter.
• GOLD has a Quant rating of “HOLD”, with a 3.05 rating score.
• GOLD has an industry ranking of 18 out of 45 among gold stocks, as per SA’s Quant ranking.
• Wall Street and Seeking Alpha authors rate the GOLD stock a “BUY”.
• In 2023, GOLD stock rose 7.9%, while spot gold price rose 13.1%. The benchmark S&P 500 Index rose 24.2% for the year.
• Stock is down 22.1% so far this year as of Monday’s close.

Recent Commentary on Barrick Gold

SA contributor Trapping Value said wrote in a Feb 6 report, “We are negative on Gold for the medium term and think that the very high real rates will weigh on the precious metal. We are also bullish on the US Dollar and that means that the precious metal will at least struggle in US Dollar terms. So we see a margin compression for Barrick, just as it gets into dealing with its production issues. The place to buy Barrick for a trade is always when it is really oversold and its relative position to the 200 day moving average helps. That is also what got us to suggest the long side trade in late 2023.”

SA contributor Taylor Dart said in his Jan 17 report that “Barrick had a softer H2 and FY2023 than I anticipated and margins are set to come in well below my expectations for Q4 and FY2023. That said, the company had a tough year with Pueblo Viejo not ramping up nearly as expected and major plant maintenance at its Nevada operations in Q1 didn’t help. That said, the stock has a better year on deck, it will hopefully do a better job of managing expectations to be able to deliver at or above its guidance midpoint this year following a few misses on its midpoint and I remain bullish on resource/reserve growth with Barrick using some of the most conservative pricing for reserves, making new discoveries with Fourmile looking like a monster, and there looks to be a path to ~6.5 million gold-equivalent ounces by the end of the decade with growth already bought and paid for. Hence, with a very reasonable valuation and a trough multiple on trough earnings, I would view further weakness below US$14.80 as a buying opportunity.”