On Friday, sugar prices continued a downward trend with July NY world sugar #11 closing down 0.08 cents (-0.48%) at a nearly four-year low, while August London ICE white sugar #5 rose 1.90 cents (+0.41%). The USDA projected a record global 2025/26 sugar production increase of 4.7% year-over-year, reaching 189.318 million metric tons, alongside a surplus of 41.188 million metric tons—a 7.5% rise compared to the previous year.
Factors influencing prices include expectations of a higher sugar output in India (up 19% year-over-year to 35 million metric tons) due to favorable planting conditions and monsoon forecasts. In contrast, Brazil’s sugar production is expected to decrease by 6.8% year-over-year, showing reductions in their Center-South production for May, which fell to 2.408 million metric tons.
Additionally, Thailand’s projected increase in sugar production by 14% year-over-year to 10 million metric tons further contributes to bearish market sentiment. The International Sugar Organization raised its global sugar deficit forecast to a nine-year high of 5.47 million metric tons for 2024/25, indicating a market tightening from last year’s surplus.
