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AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV)
Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call
March 04, 2025, 4:30 p.m. ET
Contents:
- Prepared Remarks
- Questions and Answers
- Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Good day, everyone. Thank you for being with us. Welcome to the AeroVironment fiscal 2025 third-quarter conference call. Participants are currently in listen-only mode. After the presentations, we will host a question-and-answer session.
[Operator instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now hand the call over to your speaker, Jonah Teeter-Balin. Please go ahead.
Jonah Teeter-Balin — Senior Director, Corporate Development and Investor Relations
Thanks, and good afternoon. Welcome to AeroVironment’s fiscal year 2025 third-quarter earnings call. This is Jonah Teeter-Balin, vice president of corporate development and investor relations. Before we start, please be aware that some information presented during this call may contain forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our projections. Additional details regarding these risks are available in the company’s 10-K and other SEC filings, particularly in the Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statement sections. You can find copies on the AeroVironment website at www.avinc.com or from our Investor Relations team. We have also filed a slide presentation with our earnings release, now posted in the Investors section of our website under Events and Presentations.
Recent Developments and Opportunities
The content of this conference call contains time-sensitive information that is valid only as of today, March 4, 2025. The company has no obligation to update any forward-looking statements in light of new information, future events, or otherwise. Joining me today from AeroVironment are chairman, president, and chief executive officer Mr. Wahid Nawabi, and senior vice president and chief financial officer Mr. Kevin McDonnell. We will start with remarks from Wahid Nawabi. Wahid?
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Jonah. Welcome, everyone. I will begin by summarizing our fiscal year 2025 third-quarter performance and provide an update on the BlueHalo transaction. Kevin will follow with a more detailed review of our financial results. Afterward, I’ll share our expectations for the remainder of fiscal year 2025 before we take your questions.
I am pleased to report significant progress on our long-term growth strategy this quarter, despite facing some short-term challenges. Demand for our solutions remains strong as we expand our capabilities and capacity in defense technology. Our key updates are on Slide No. 3 of our earnings presentation:
- First, we secured substantial contracts related to major long-term programs, including the U.S. Army’s LASSO and the U.S. DOD’s Replicator, boosting our backlog to a record $764 million.
- Second, we are making disciplined investments to expand production capacity, launch new products, and strengthen our market position through acquisitions.
- Third, while we made solid progress, our financial performance for the third quarter was slightly below expectations, mainly due to the recent severe windstorms in Los Angeles.
- Fourth, based on recent challenges, we are reducing our guidance but remain optimistic about achieving record revenue in the fourth quarter and accelerating growth in fiscal year 2026.
Despite challenges this quarter, we are confident in our long-term growth strategy. The defense technology sector is undergoing a significant transformation due to the rise of distributed autonomous AI-enabled solutions. We believe we are well-positioned to address our customers’ evolving needs through our core strengths, advanced technology, and extensive production capabilities.
The global security environment continues to demand effective, cost-efficient AI-driven autonomous defense solutions. The U.S. Department of Defense and allied nations are moving quickly to implement technologies that we pioneered, such as Uncrewed Systems and Loitering Munitions. Recently, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth emphasized the administration’s commitment to AI, drones, counter-drone systems, and autonomous warfare capabilities.
These priorities align with AeroVironment’s core offerings and long-term strategy. While shipments to Ukraine have decreased as anticipated, the ongoing conflict underscores the effectiveness of our solutions, leading to unprecedented demand from the U.S. DOD, NATO, and allied partners in the Pacific region.
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U.S. Defense Procurement Changes Impact Future Growth and Strategy
The U.S. defense policy and procurement priorities are evolving, reinforcing our global expansion strategy. For instance, Ukraine’s deployment of approximately $40 million worth of Switchblade 600 drones has led to the destruction of nearly $3 billion in enemy military assets. This statistic highlights a striking efficiency: for every Switchblade 600 used, $13 million in enemy assets have been neutralized.
As we transition from the focus on Ukraine to more substantial growth opportunities, we note that all AV shipments to Ukraine are expected to make up only 17% of our revenues for the full fiscal year, a decrease from 38% last year. In Q4, sales to Ukraine will represent approximately 6% of revenues and are not projected to be significant for our growth plans.
Despite this adjustment, we anticipate achieving over 10% revenue growth and securing $1 billion in orders for fiscal year 2025. Recently, we have also made substantial progress in closing the BlueHalo transaction and preparing for its integration. This acquisition will enhance our market opportunity and growth potential by adding capabilities in space technologies, counter-UAS, directed energy, electronic warfare, and cyber solutions to our portfolio. This combination will broaden our technology offerings and operational footprint, allowing us to deliver a more comprehensive set of solutions across various domains including air, land, sea, space, and cyber.
Since announcing the BlueHalo transaction, we’ve engaged extensively with our customers and have received an overwhelmingly positive response. They appreciate AV’s unique blend of innovation and product leadership, expressing confidence in the future company’s capacity to deliver on significant defense initiatives at scale. We have secured key regulatory approvals, including HSR antitrust and SEC S-4 reviews, completing these earlier this year. The upcoming shareholder vote on April 1 will be a crucial step forward.
Although we still have a few remaining international regulatory reviews, we expect to finalize the transaction in the second quarter of calendar year 2025. Our team is also focused on integration preparation, and we look forward to providing further updates soon. As we proceed, we face short-term challenges such as severe winds and fires in Los Angeles, which tragically impacted many lives and businesses in our community, including AV employees.
While our facilities were safe from direct damage, extended forced shutdowns and power outages disrupted our manufacturing and supply chains. These recent events have impeded our operational goals, affecting both quarterly results and full-year expectations. We are committed to recovering lost time while implementing a distributed manufacturing strategy to enhance future resilience. Recently, we received stop-work orders related to four foreign military sales contracts, totaling about $13 million—most of which we had aimed to deliver in Q4.
Additionally, the U.S. government has paused military aid to Ukraine and imposed new tariffs. The stop-work orders will directly impact our Q4 deliveries, though the broader implications of these changes remain uncertain. We have accounted for these effects in our revised guidance and will share updates as needed.
Now, I will provide updates on each of our three business segments, beginning with the Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS). The LMS team achieved record revenue this quarter and reached several important strategic milestones. They secured over $350 million in Switchblade contracts, including a noteworthy single award of $288 million under our $990 million IDIQ contract—the largest in AV’s 50-year history.
Global demand for both Switchblade 300 and 600 models is also on the rise, with 10 countries placing firm orders and more than 20 others in active discussions. To accommodate this growing demand, we have expanded manufacturing capacity significantly. Our new Switchblade production facility in Utah will be five times larger than our current plant, set to double production throughput and support over $1 billion in annual LMS revenue by the end of fiscal year 2027. We expect this facility to begin operations by year-end.
Despite the difficulties presented by wind and fires, Switchblade production is on track to end Q4 at about a $500 million annualized run rate. Investments in Utah and other locations, including resources gained through the BlueHalo acquisition, will bolster our operational resilience and reduce future disruptions. The LMS segment is vital to our growth strategy, evidenced by key awards and increased production capacity.
Next, I will discuss our UnCrewed Systems (UxS) segment. The UxS segment is transitioning from Ukraine-related revenues towards other long-term growth opportunities, as shown by key strategic wins this quarter. Recently, we secured a sole-source contract with a $181 million ceiling to provide the Danish military with JUMP 20 UAS over the next decade. This competitive bid reinforces our belief that JUMP 20 represents the best Group 2 UAS available today.
Moreover, we were awarded a major contract with the German Federal Armed Forces to supply over 40 uncrewed ground vehicles—one of the largest UGV contracts in our company’s history. Our international pipeline continues to grow, with expectations of announcing further significant international JUMP 20 contracts in the coming months. To address the increasing demand, we have established a new P550 production line for future production.
We believe P550 will lead the small UAS industry in innovation and global adoption, similar to our successful Raven and Puma products. With Raven and Puma already yielding multibillion-dollar revenues for AV, we anticipate similar success with P550. Recently, we also expanded our presence in Europe by opening a new office in the U.K., which will strengthen our ties with key European defense clients and enhance support for regional programs.
Innovation remains a top priority as we bring new capabilities to market. For instance, we recently launched the JUMP 20-X platform, an enhanced maritime variant of JUMP 20 optimized for shipboard operations. Additionally, new software for our Puma AE and LE UAS enhances autonomy, flexibility, and performance in contested environments. Although the UxS segment is experiencing a transitional year, we are optimistic about its long-term growth driven by market expansion, new product launches, and an expanding global footprint.
Lastly, concerning our MacCready Works segment, we continue to advance the development of next-generation technologies that catalyze the evolution of AI-enabled solutions. This segment is focused on harnessing innovative capabilities to bolster our overall offering.
# AV Delivers on Innovations Despite Quarterly Setbacks
This quarter, the team made significant strides in our software-defined autonomous one-way attack drones. This new family of systems is designed with crucial battlefield insights and can be mass-produced affordably at high volumes. We have seen substantial interest from customers, with initial units delivered to early adopters. We believe this solution set will provide a crucial advantage for customers operating in high-threat environments, and we are eager to share more details in the upcoming months. Additionally, we continue to expand AVACORE autonomy capabilities across our entire portfolio, enhancing adaptive mission execution and real-time decision-making.
Furthermore, our SPOTR-Edge computer vision software is now integrated into multiple UnCrewed Systems, offering advanced AI-driven threat detection, tracking, and situational awareness. These technologies enhance our competitive edge, making AV solutions smarter, faster, and more effective under contested conditions. MacCready Works remains at the forefront of autonomous warfare innovations, solidifying AV’s role as a leading innovator in UnCrewed Systems and Loitering Munitions. Overall, the company achieved significant milestones that bolster our confidence in future endeavors.
However, operations in the L.A. area faced challenges from high winds and unprecedented fires, which limited our ability to meet quarterly targets. In addition, recent soft work orders from the U.S. Department of Defense are affecting our goals for the fourth quarter.
Consequently, we are revising our fiscal year 2025 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and non-GAAP EPS guidance downwards. Nonetheless, our backlog is at a record high, and we maintain a strong pipeline, which leaves us optimistic about our long-term growth trajectory. Now, I’ll hand the call over to Kevin McDonnell for a detailed look at our third-quarter financials. Kevin?
Kevin McDonnell — Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Wahid. Today, I will review highlights from our third-quarter performance. For additional information, I will reference our press release and earnings presentation available on our website. Overall, the financial quarter was mixed; we saw record orders and backlog, yet revenue and profitability fell below expectations. Our revenue hit $167.6 million, a decrease of 10% compared to $186.6 million from the same quarter of fiscal 2024. As Wahid pointed out, revenue from Ukraine accounted for approximately 5% in Q3. For a detailed breakdown by segment this quarter, please refer to Slide 6 of the earnings presentation.
A notable highlight this quarter was the continued growth of our Loitering Munitions (LMS) business, despite the aforementioned challenges. The LMS segment achieved revenue of $83.9 million, marking a 46% increase from last year’s third-quarter results of $57.7 million. The Switchblade 600 accounted for over 70% of LMS revenue this quarter. Meanwhile, our UnCrewed Systems (UxS) segment, combining small UAS, medium UAS, and UGV businesses, generated $63.8 million, which is down 44% from last year’s total of $113.3 million, largely driven by a $47 million decline in Ukraine revenue.
Looking ahead, we anticipate strong growth in the UxS segment for the fourth quarter, spurred by recent awards for the JUMP 20 and other products, despite the impact of stop-work orders. Our MacCready Works segment reported revenue of $20 million, up 28% from $15.6 million in the same quarter last year, thanks to programs like HAPS, the SoftBank program, and the SOAR Autonomous resupply drone initiative. Slide 7 of our earnings presentation displays the trend in adjusted product and service revenues, and Slide 12 reconciles GAAP gross margins to adjusted gross margins, excluding non-cash purchase accounting items. The consolidated GAAP gross margins for Q3 were 38%, an improvement from last year due to increases in LMS margins, although offset by lower surface margins.
In terms of adjusted gross margins, Q3 adjusted gross margins were at 40%, up from 38% year-over-year, reflecting changes in the sales mix. Adjusted product gross margins increased to 44% from 38% in the same period last year, primarily driven by improved margins in the LMS segment, which benefited from favorable pricing on some internal components and productivity gains.
Conversely, our adjusted service gross margins were 20%, down from 40% last year, largely due to higher field service costs impacting both LMS and UxS margins. We expect overall adjusted gross margins in our legacy business to stabilize around 40% to 41% for the full year.
As for adjusted EBITDA, each quarter is reconciled in Slide 13 of our earnings presentation. Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 stood at $21.8 million, a decrease from $28.8 million in the same quarter last year. This decline was due to lower revenues and increased SG&A expenses, which were partly balanced by reduced R&D investment and higher gross margins. Nevertheless, SG&A expenses align with our full-year guidance, and we expect adjusted EBITDA in Q4 to surpass that of the first three quarters.
We anticipate ongoing acquisition-related expenses of approximately $10 million in Q3, continuing into Q4 and likely into the next fiscal year related to the BlueHalo transaction. Due to the unpredictable timing and amounts of these expenses impacting GAAP net income, we will provide revenue, non-GAAP EPS, and adjusted EBITDA guidance only. Excluding intangible amortization and acquisition-related expenses, SG&A for the third quarter was $33 million, representing 20% of revenue, up from $26 million or 14% in the prior year. The increase reflects higher sales and marketing expenditures mainly due to increased bid and proposal activities and employee-related costs due to rising headcount that supports our growth initiatives.
R&D expenses for the third quarter totaled $22 million, or 13% of revenue, compared to $25 million or 13% in the previous year. This figure represents a $6 million reduction from the prior quarter as we reduced development activities for the recently introduced JUMP 20-X all-domain system and the P550 Group 2 system. We continue to make investments in the Switchblade product line, including new variants. Our expectation for R&D spending remains in the range of 12% to 13% of revenue.
Company Reports Q3 Fiscal 2025 Loss, Adjusts Revenue Forecasts
In the latest quarter, the company faced challenges that led to a net loss of $1.8 million, a stark contrast to the net income of $13.9 million in the same quarter last year. This $15.6 million dip in net income resulted from several factors. The company encountered increased deal and integration costs of $10 million related to the ongoing BlueHalo acquisition. Additionally, selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose by $5.9 million, including intangible amortization, and gross margins decreased by $4 million. However, a $2 million reduction in R&D investments and a $1.9 million decrease in tax expenses provided some relief to the overall financial picture.
As illustrated in Slide 11, the reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) shows that the adjusted EPS for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 was $0.30, down from $0.63 per diluted share recorded for the same quarter in fiscal 2024. Shifting to the balance sheet, total cash and investments stood at $72.5 million by the end of the third quarter, a decline from $91.9 million at the close of the second quarter of fiscal 2025.
During the third quarter, unbilled receivables saw an increase of $25 million. This rise is primarily due to delays in LMS progress billings, which are gradually on track, leading to anticipated reductions in unbilled amounts by Q4. The company has begun receiving LMS progress billing payments this quarter. Access to a $200 million revolving credit facility remains intact, with a $25 million drawdown at the end of Q3.
Highlighting the backlog metrics, the funded backlog reached a historic $763.5 million by the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Notably, about $13 million of this backlog involves contracts currently under a stop work order. Despite this, the company retains complete visibility on the midpoint of its revised lower guidance range for fiscal 2025, and projections indicate that bookings for the year will exceed $1 billion, positioning the company for robust organic revenue growth in fiscal year 2026.
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Kevin. In light of our third-quarter performance and recent developments, we’ve adjusted our full-year guidance for fiscal 2025. We now anticipate revenues between $780 million and $795 million, adjusted EBITDA ranging from $135 million to $142 million, and non-GAAP earnings between $2.92 and $3.13 per share. We expect R&D expenses to account for 12% to 13% of our revenues, with adjusted gross margins between 40% and 41% for the full year.
To recap the key points from today’s call: Firstly, we’ve received significant awards linked to strategic long-term projects, which propelled our backlog to an unprecedented $764 million. Secondly, we continue to make strategic investments that uphold our market leadership while expanding our capabilities. Thirdly, operational challenges due to high winds and fires in the Los Angeles region impacted our third-quarter results. Lastly, while our fiscal year 2025 guidance has been lowered, we are on track for another record quarter in Q4, with strong growth projected for fiscal 2026.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this call, we’ve made substantial progress this quarter. Our operations are not only adapting to the changing nature of modern warfare; we are at the forefront of this transformation. The global demand for AI-enabled drones and loitering munitions is on the rise, reinforcing our leadership in these areas. Furthermore, we are encouraged by the current administration’s focus on rapidly deploying AI-driven autonomous systems, vision that aligns with our strengths and expertise.
We are proud to support vital defense missions during this critical time. Thank you to our employees, shareholders, and customers for your commitment to delivering advanced solutions that safeguard our nation and allies.
Now, Kevin, Jonah, and I will take your questions.
Questions & Answers:
Operator
Thank you. [Operator instructions] Given the limited time, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We’ll compile the Q&A roster shortly.
The first question will come from Greg Konrad with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Greg Konrad — Analyst
Good evening. You referred to fiscal ’26 in your opening remarks. The current guidance suggests an exit run rate of about $240 million in Q4. How do you envision bridging to fiscal ’26, considering your backlog and your comments regarding Ukraine?
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Greg. We are very well positioned for significant and profitable growth in fiscal ’26. Our backlog is at an all-time high, nearing $750 million. Additionally, we’re projecting to exit Q4 with revenues between $240 million and $250 million, marking a substantial quarter for us. This sets the stage for approaching nearly $1 billion in revenue next year. While uncertainties remain regarding the administration’s decisions, global demand for our systems is decidedly increasing. Our robust backlog and expanding pipeline reflect this growth. External conflicts, exemplified by the situation in Ukraine, have showcased the effectiveness of our solutions, further solidifying our strong market position.
Greg Konrad — Analyst
As a follow-up regarding BlueHalo, the growth forecast in the S-4 appears promising. Without going into specifics, what areas are you most excited about for BlueHalo’s growth post-acquisition?
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Greg, the acquisition of BlueHalo is indeed set to revolutionize our capabilities and offerings…# Significant Growth Expected for AV and BlueHalo in Coming Years
AV is leading the industry with a remarkable collaboration between two companies that possess nearly no overlap, offering complementary strengths. This partnership aims to deliver an integrated portfolio of robotic systems that are interconnected, interoperable, and enhanced with AI, autonomy, and computer vision. We are particularly excited about their counter-UAS business, where they are recognized as a market leader with capabilities in lasers and directed energy for counter-unmanned aerial systems (UAS).
Another area of growing interest is their space communication segment. They recently secured a program exceeding $1 billion with the U.S. Department of Defense, specifically for the upgrade of military satellite communications. Aside from these sectors, they play a significant role in the cyber and intelligence community, boasting advanced capabilities. These three areas will not only enhance our offerings but are also projected to drive high growth for the combined entity. Furthermore, the merger positions us for sustainable growth, revenue, and profitability, reinforcing our market leadership.
Beyond our organic growth potential, we’re optimistic about this merger.
Greg Konrad — Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. This question comes from Peter Arment with Baird. Your line is open.
Peter Arment — Analyst
Good afternoon, Wahid, Kevin, Jonah. Wahid, can you elaborate on the work stoppage? You mentioned it affects four Foreign Military Sales (FMS) contracts. What caused this, and should we expect it to impact Q4 or further?
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and CEO
Peter, great question. As I noted in my earlier remarks, we received information from the U.S. Department of Defense regarding specific contracts valued at approximately $13 million. These FMS contracts were already secured, and we were in the delivery process for the fourth quarter. We have been instructed to cease work on these contracts, but it’s unclear whether this is a temporary suspension or a permanent halt. In my personal opinion, I don’t think these countries will remain without our capabilities due to their significant need for them. The U.S. is currently reassessing its priorities, which has led us to adjust our outlook for the fourth quarter. This circumstance will indeed affect our results, prompting us to lower our guidance. However, we maintain a strong growth outlook for next year, largely thanks to our solid backlog and rising demand, particularly in autonomous drones and loitering munitions, where we hold a competitive edge.
As the situation is evolving, which remains fluid, we’ll provide updates as more information becomes available.
Peter Arment — Analyst
Thanks for the clarification. As a follow-up, you previously discussed a revenue run rate exceeding $500 million in Loitering Munitions Systems (LMS). You also mentioned projections for fiscal ’26 nearing $1 billion, which suggests substantial growth in the uncrewed segment. Could you discuss the factors contributing to this optimism regarding uncrewed systems?
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and CEO
Absolutely, Peter. We are confident in our Uncrewed Systems (UxS) division’s growth. Several key factors are driving demand for this sector over the coming years, particularly new capabilities we’re introducing. We are investing in a new generation of systems, such as the P550, which the U.S. DOD has already backed with programs worth over $1 billion. One example is the long-range reconnaissance program, which we expect to significantly enhance our UxS business in terms of adoption and revenue, thus contributing to profitability.
This year, fiscal 2025 has been a transition year for us. We proactively pivoted from the earlier demand spike associated with Ukraine, which accounted for about 38% of our revenue last fiscal year. We anticipate it will drop to around 17%, with only about 6% expected in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, we have a historic backlog that sets us up for robust growth next year, with Loitering Munitions expected to lead that trend, alongside growth in UxS and our MacCready segment.
Peter Arment — Analyst
Thanks for your insights.
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and CEO
You’re welcome, Peter.
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question from Louie DiPalma with William Blair. Your line is open.
Louie DiPalma — Analyst
Good afternoon, Wahid, Kevin, and Jonah. Wahid and Kevin, you expressed confidence that AV will generate nearly $1 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026. Do you feel similarly about BlueHalo achieving close to that amount? There was a projection in the recent S-4 filing, and I’d like to know how current those projections are.
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and CEO
Certainly, Louie. We are optimistic about AV’s organic growth potential. Our backlog, both as a percentage of revenue and in total amount, is at an all-time high. This positions us for strong financial performance in fiscal ’26. The increasing demand for our systems, aided by the new administration’s stated priorities, further supports our growth. As for BlueHalo, we…
# AeroVironment’s Growth Strategy and International Sales Update
AeroVironment has published a detailed financial forecast prepared internally, which has been externally verified by third-party experts. This information is part of the S-4 filing and can be referenced for a deeper understanding of their business outlook.
Company leadership is optimistic about the synergies between AeroVironment and BlueHalo. They anticipate that this partnership will strengthen their market offerings and position them favorably to address both current administration priorities and international security threats. Although the closing of the merger is not yet finalized, there is confidence that these developments will have a positive long-term impact on AeroVironment’s prospects.
Kevin McDonnell — Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
The joint guidance for the next fiscal period will be provided alongside their year-end results.
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
That is indeed the plan.
Louie Louie DiPalma — Analyst
Thank you. Last quarter, you mentioned being close to finalizing two JUMP 20 orders. Can you confirm if the second order has been completed or if it is still pending?
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Excellent question. You are correct; we previously indicated two orders. We are pleased to report this quarter that we successfully announced one of those—a $181 million sole-source IDIQ contract with the Danish military to be executed over the next ten years. The status of the second order remains.
Kevin McDonnell — Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
That is subject to a competitive bid.
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
The bidding process was indeed very competitive. As Kevin noted, it was a fierce competition, which only underscores that JUMP 20 is the leading solution in the market. Despite a protest on the competition, we eventually prevailed.
We are actively pursuing the second order and anticipate an announcement during the fourth quarter. The timeline is dependent on the customer, but we believe we are in a strong position. This is also a significant program where we expect to displace another competitor, and we will keep you informed on progress.
Our expectation is to have a decision made in the fourth quarter or at the beginning of the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
Louie Louie DiPalma — Analyst
Great. Lastly, regarding the Army’s stop work order, you mentioned it pertains to foreign military sales. Does this involve multiple countries using their own funds to purchase the Switchblade or Puma systems, with the U.S. Army blocking these purchases?
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks for your question, Louie. The stop work order we received pertains to specific foreign military sales contracts with the U.S. Army and various international customers. Unfortunately, I cannot disclose the specific nations involved.
This situation affects approximately $13 million in bookings that we expected to ship in the fourth quarter. We are currently uncertain if this hold is temporary. The U.S. Department of Defense, along with the current administration, is leveraging various negotiations with these countries, and most contracts are foreign military-funded. This means funding is generally provided by the U.S. government, and the DOD is reassessing each case.
The future of these contracts is unclear. However, it is important to note that many of these countries have a pressing need for our capabilities. Our solutions are cost-effective, and there is a possibility they might pursue alternative funding if U.S. funding does not materialize.
Despite this setback, we remain confident in our business fundamentals and backlog. We look forward to another growth year and a successful execution of our fourth-quarter goals amidst an evolving political landscape.
Louie Louie DiPalma — Analyst
Thank you.
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Louie.
Operator
[Operator instructions] Our next question comes from Andre Madrid with BTIG. Your line is now open.
Andre Madrid — Analyst
Thanks, Wahid, Kevin, Jonah, for taking my question. Regarding international sales, you mentioned last quarter that six additional nations were at varying stages of the acquisition process. Could you provide an update on the progress of those negotiations?
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Certainly, Andre. As mentioned earlier, we have firm orders from approximately six of those countries in our backlog and expect to ship these orders over the upcoming months and into next year. Additionally, we are engaged with around 20 more countries, all of which are interested in acquiring the Switchblade 300 and 600 variants.
The interest from these nations continues to grow, and notably, for many of them, this will be their first acquisition of such systems. Their initial purchases will be essential for training and operational integration, fostering broader adoption of our technologies. I remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential for our Loitering Munitions business as Switchblade’s performance, particularly in the conflict in Ukraine, has demonstrated its value.
AeroVironment is at the forefront of the industry, with a competitive edge in production capacity and delivery capabilities. We are expanding our production capacity significantly to meet this rising demand.
AeroVironment’s Growth Outlook Remains Strong Despite Recent Challenges
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
AeroVironment anticipates significant growth ahead, particularly with its logistics management solutions (LMS). In a recent conference call, CEO Wahid Nawabi expressed confidence in transforming LMS into a $1 billion franchise. The company is aggressively pursuing this goal, underscoring strong growth indicators extending beyond next year.
Impact of Wildfires on Third Quarter Performance
Andre Madrid — Analyst
During the discussion, Analyst Andre Madrid inquired about the financial effects of the wildfires in Southern California on third-quarter results.
Wahid Nawabi
Nawabi acknowledged the challenges presented by the unprecedented wildfires and high winds. While he couldn’t provide exact figures due to the complex nature of the incidents, he noted that local utility companies implemented extended power shutdowns. “Many weeks, we were losing power day in and day out,” he explained, emphasizing the widespread impact on AeroVironment’s operations and its local workforce.
Despite these setbacks, Nawabi expressed satisfaction with the company’s continued growth trajectory, forecasting a record fourth-quarter revenue and profitability. He emphasized that, compared to last year, AeroVironment is in a much stronger position heading into the fiscal year 2026.
Closing Remarks and Future Outlook
Andre Madrid
Thanking Nawabi, Madrid raised further inquiries, to which Nawabi remained optimistic about future prospects.
Jonah Teeter-Balin — Senior Director, Corporate Development and Investor Relations
As the call concluded, Senior Director Jonah Teeter-Balin thanked attendees for their participation and invited them to access an archived version of the call, along with relevant SEC filings on the company’s website. He expressed eagerness to reconnect after the next quarter’s results.
Good evening.
Operator
[Operator signoff]
Duration: 0 minutes
Call Participants:
Jonah Teeter-Balin — Senior Director, Corporate Development and Investor Relations
Wahid Nawabi — Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Kevin McDonnell — Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Greg Konrad — Analyst
Peter Arment — Analyst
Louie DiPalma — Analyst
Andre Madrid — Analyst
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