**Coffee Prices Decline Amid Increased Supply Projections**
On Monday, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed down 2.70 cents (-1.01%), reaching a 1.5-year nearest-futures low, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) fell 59 cents (-1.75%), marking a 4-week low. Contributing to these declines, projections indicate that Brazil’s coffee crop for 2026/27 could rise by 12% year-over-year to approximately 71.4 million bags, with estimates from Marex Group suggesting a record high of 75.9 million bags.
Vietnam’s robusta coffee exports increased significantly, with 2026 exports from January to April up 15.8% year-over-year to 810,000 metric tons. Additionally, ICE inventory levels for both arabica and robusta have decreased, with robusta reaching a 2-year low of 3,631 lots. The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has also impacted global coffee supplies, increasing shipping costs and affecting importers and roasters adversely.
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