Impact of Hot Inflation and Global Trade Disruptions on the Market Impact of Hot Inflation and Global Trade Disruptions on the Market

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PPI inflation comes in hot … the Red Sea problem isn’t getting better … Louis Navellier is bullish on oil … yesterday’s bad retail sales report … is the U.S. consumer finally cracking?

It’s a busy news cycle. Let’s bounce around to a handful of stories likely impacting your portfolio.

Today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) disappoints

As we covered in the Digest on Tuesday, January’s CPI number came in above forecasts, resulting in a heavy down day on Wall Street. The selling pressure was due to fears that the hotter-than-expected CPI data would cause the Federal Reserve to delay its initial rate cut, while potentially cutting rates fewer times in 2024.

The hope was that today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) print would be more encouraging, giving the Federal Reserve members the “cool” data that they’re looking for. Instead, the number also came in higher than expected.

Red Sea troubles impacting consumer goods prices

As we’ve been reporting in the Digest, Houthi rebels have continued their missile-strikes on ships in the Red Sea, disrupting one of the world’s busiest trade routes. Since November, the Houthis have attacked or threatened commercial ships at least 46 times, according to U.S. defense data.

This is a major problem for global commerce since the Red Sea is the only route to the Suez Canal (from Asia) and is a lifeblood for trade connecting Europe and the East. About 12% of global trade comes through the canal, which represents approximately 30% of all global container traffic.

Investing in oil amid the turmoil

One week ago today, we analyzed the oil market with the help of our macro expert Eric Fry. Our conclusion was oil and energy stocks appear attractive for a trade – both on a shorter-term basis (as we head toward the summer) and a longer-term basis (as supply shocks hit the market by 2025).

Well, oil keeps climbing, and legendary investor Louis Navellier is feeling bullish about his Big Energy Bet.

Speaking of inflation, keep your eye on continuing problems in the Red Sea and its impact on consumer goods prices

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