Deere Earnings Report: What Investors Need to Know

Deere (NYSE: DE) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, May 15, 2025. Historically, the stock has displayed a slight tendency for negative one-day returns following earnings announcements. An analysis of the past five years shows that DE had a negative one-day return in 55% of cases, with a median negative return of -3.0% and a maximum negative return of -14.1%.

Strategies for Event-Driven Traders

For traders focused on these events, historical patterns may provide a potential advantage. Two primary strategies to consider include:

• Pre-earnings Positioning: Traders might choose to establish a position before the earnings announcement, based on the historical likelihood of negative returns.
• Post-earnings Analysis: After earnings are released, traders can examine the stock’s immediate reaction and its medium-term performance to make informed decisions.

Market Expectations and Consensus Projections

It’s essential to recognize that market reaction will largely depend on how Deere’s earnings stack up against consensus expectations. Currently, projections estimate earnings of $5.64 per share on sales of $10.79 billion. This represents a sharp decline from the prior year’s earnings of $8.53 per share on sales of $13.61 billion, likely due to decreased demand for farming equipment impacting Deere’s Q2 performance.

Company Financials

From a fundamental perspective, Deere & Company has a market capitalization of $134 billion. Over the last twelve months, it generated $47 billion in revenue, achieving $10 billion in operating profit and a net income of $6.2 billion.

Deere’s Historical Earnings Returns

Examining one-day (1D) post-earnings returns reveals the following:

• Deere recorded 20 earnings data points over the past five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative returns. Thus, positive 1D returns occurred about 45% of the time.
• This percentage drops to 42% when looking at the last three years instead.
• The median of the 9 positive returns stands at 5.3%, while the median for the 11 negative returns is -3.0%.

Short-Term and Medium-Term Returns

To assess risk, traders should understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings. For instance, if the 1D and 5D returns show a strong correlation, a trader could consider going “long” for the next five days if the 1D return is positive. Below is the correlation data based on five-year and three-year histories, with a focus on 1D_5D correlation.

Peer Influence on Earnings Reactions

Peer performance can also influence how Deere’s stock reacts post-earnings. Often, market sentiment may begin to shift before the actual announcements. The following data compares Deere’s post-earnings performance to that of its peers, evaluated based on one-day (1D) returns.

Conclusion

Understanding historical performances and market trends can provide valuable insights for investors interested in Deere’s upcoming earnings report. Accessing comprehensive data is crucial for making informed trading decisions in the current market climate.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.