Honeywell’s Upcoming Earnings: Historical Trends and Expectations

Honeywell International (NASDAQ:HON) is set to release its earnings report on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. An analysis of the company’s earnings performance over the past five years shows a historical trend of negative one-day returns following announcements, occurring in 60% of cases. These returns have averaged a median of -3.2%, with a maximum decline of -7.6%.

Current consensus estimates anticipate earnings per share (EPS) of $2.21 on revenues of $9.6 billion for this upcoming period. In comparison, the previous year reported earnings of $2.25 per share on revenues of $9.1 billion, hinting at possible margin compression despite expected mid-single-digit revenue growth. Notably, Honeywell’s building automation segment reported a robust growth of 20% in the preceding quarter, with this trend expected to continue. Conversely, demand in the safety and sensing technologies segment is expected to be weaker.

Fundamentally, Honeywell boasts a market capitalization of $128 billion and has generated $38 billion in revenue over the last twelve months. The company’s operational performance reflects profitability with reported operating profits of $7.7 billion and net income of $5.7 billion during this period.

Assessing Historical Trends for Traders

For event-driven traders, recognizing these historical patterns could provide a potential advantage. However, the actual market response will depend on how the reported results stack up against consensus estimates and broader market expectations. Two primary strategies to consider are: positioning ahead of the earnings release based on historical probabilities or analyzing the correlation between short- and medium-term returns post-announcement to inform future trading strategies.

Honeywell International’s Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Examining one-day (1D) post-earnings returns provides further insights:

• Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points recorded, resulting in 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns—indicating positive returns were observed about 40% of the time.
• This percentage improves to 58% when looking at data from the last three years.
• The median of the 8 positive returns is 2.4%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -3.2%.

Further data summarizing 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns is provided in the table below.

Correlation Between Historical Returns

Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings is crucial, especially for traders seeking less risky strategies. If the correlation between 1D and 5D returns is high, a trader could position themselves “long” for the next five days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year history is available for reference.

Influence of Peer Earnings on Stock Reaction

Peer performance can sometimes impact Honeywell’s stock reaction post-earnings. Market pricing may begin prior to the earnings announcements. Historical data comparing Honeywell’s post-earnings performance with peers that reported their earnings beforehand reveals these dynamics.

The insights outlined above provide a framework for understanding Honeywell’s performance and the associated market reactions surrounding its earnings announcements.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.