Anticipating Johnson Controls Stock Movements Ahead of Earnings Report

Published On: May 6, 2025 1:56 am

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Johnson Controls International to Report Earnings with Mixed Historical Returns

Johnson Controls International (NYSE:JCI) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. In the past five years, JCI has recorded a positive one-day return following its earnings releases in 56% of cases. When returns were positive, the median increase was 2.2%, reaching a maximum one-day return of 11.3%.

Strategies for Event-Driven Traders

Traders can leverage historical performance patterns to gain insight, but actual market reactions will depend on how the reported results align with consensus estimates. Two primary strategies include:

Pre-earnings Positioning: Evaluate the historical likelihood of a positive post-earnings return and adopt a position before the announcement.
Post-earnings Positioning: Investigate the link between immediate market reactions and medium-term returns to adjust positions post-earnings.

Current Earnings Projections

Consensus estimates for JCI predict earnings per share of $0.79 on revenue of $5.63 billion, compared to last year’s earnings of $0.78 per share and $6.7 billion in sales. This reflects a cautious outlook amid fluctuating market conditions.

Company Financials

From a fundamental perspective, JCI currently has a market capitalization of $59 billion. Its total revenue over the past twelve months reached $22 billion, with $2.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.8 billion.

Examining Return Patterns

Analyzing JCI’s one-day post-earnings returns reveals that over the last five years, a total of 18 earnings data points were recorded, yielding 10 positive and 8 negative returns. Consequently, JCI experienced positive returns 56% of the time. If focused on the last three years, this figure slightly decreases to 50%. The median positive return was 2.2%, while the median negative return stood at -5.3%.

Short-Term and Medium-Term Correlation

To reduce risk, it’s essential to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings. For instance, if the one-day and five-day post-earnings returns are closely correlated, a trader may consider adopting a long position if the one-day return is positive.

Impact of Peer Performance

Peer performance can also influence JCI’s post-earnings stock reaction, with market pricing potentially reflecting this prior to earnings announcements. Historical data on JCI’s stock compared to peers indicates varying reaction patterns in relation to those earnings announcements.