Impressive Projections for Vistra Corp. as Fourth-Quarter Earnings Approach

Analysts Anticipate Strong Results Amid Market Volatility

Irving, Texas-based Vistra Corp. (VST) is a retail electricity and power generation company delivering electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. With a market cap of $46.6 billion, Vistra manages operations through several segments, including Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure.

Ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings announcement on Wednesday, February 26, analysts are forecasting a remarkable recovery for Vistra. They expect a non-GAAP profit of $1.07 per share, a significant improvement from the loss of $0.48 per share reported in the same quarter last year. Although Vistra has fallen short of Wall Street’s bottom-line expectations in three of the past four quarters, it managed to outdo the forecasts in one quarter. In fact, its adjusted EPS of $5.25 for the most recent quarter exceeded consensus estimates by an impressive 323.4%.

For the entire fiscal year 2024, analysts predict that Vistra will achieve an adjusted EPS of $4.48, marking a 24.8% increase from $3.59 in fiscal 2023. Looking ahead to fiscal 2025, earnings are expected to jump by 35.3% year-over-year to $6.06 per share.

Over the last 52 weeks, Vistra’s stock surged an impressive 236.2%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 22.9% gain and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLU) 26.9% increase during the same period.

The company’s stock jumped by 7.7% following its strong Q3 results reported on November 7. Vistra posted a remarkable 53.9% year-over-year increase in operating revenues, totaling $6.3 billion, which comfortably beat market expectations. Additionally, net income for shareholders surged by 295.7% compared to the previous year, reaching $1.8 billion.

The driving force behind VST’s stock performance has been the ongoing growth and anticipated increase in energy demand from data centers. However, Vistra’s stock declined by 28.3% in the most recent trading session, reflecting broader market worries, particularly in the tech sector. Investors were unsettled by the emergence of Chinese DeepSeek AI, which raised concerns about the future dominance of U.S. firms in the generative AI space. A potential decrease in this dominance could lead to lower energy demand from data centers, impacting Vistra’s growth trajectory.

Despite these challenges, analysts maintain a positive outlook on the stock’s future. VST carries an overall “Strong Buy” rating, with 11 out of 12 analysts recommending a “Strong Buy” and one suggesting a “Moderate Buy.” The average price target for Vistra stands at $184.92, indicating a 34.9% upside from its current price levels.

On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.