Workday Earnings Report Scheduled: Trends and Historical Performance

Workday (NASDAQ: WDAY), a prominent cloud-based software provider, is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 22, 2025. Over the past five years, Workday’s stock has registered a positive one-day return following its earnings announcements 60% of the time. These gains have a median increase of 8.1% and a peak of 17.2%.

For event-driven traders, analyzing historical trends may provide an edge. However, the actual market response will heavily depend on how reported results align with consensus estimates. Here are two key strategies based on historical data:

• Pre-earnings Positioning: Evaluate the historical likelihood of a positive or negative reaction and create a position prior to the earnings release.
• Post-earnings Positioning: Assess the relationship between the immediate market response and subsequent medium-term stock performance, and then adjust trades after the announcement.

Currently, analysts expect Workday to report earnings per share of $2.01 on revenues of $2.22 billion for the upcoming quarter. This contrasts with the same quarter last year, where the earnings per share stood at $1.74 with revenues of $1.99 billion.

From a financial standpoint, Workday has a market capitalization of $73 billion. In the past twelve months, the company reported $8.4 billion in revenue, with an operating profit of $499 million and a net income of $526 million.

Workday’s Historical Odds of Positive Post-earnings Return

Insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings returns reveal the following:

• Out of 20 earnings data points recorded in the last five years, there were 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns. This indicates that positive 1D returns occurred approximately 60% of the time.
• The percentage rises to 67% when considering data from the last three years.
• The median for the 12 positive returns is 8.1%, while the median for the 8 negative returns is -4.9%.

Further analysis of observed 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns post-earnings is summarized in the table below.

WDAY 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A strategy that mitigates risk involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings. By identifying pairs with the strongest correlation, traders can make informed decisions. For instance, if a positive 1D post-earnings return correlates highly with 5D returns, a trader may position themselves “long” for the following five days.

WDAY Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Correlation with Peer Earnings

Performance of peers can impact the post-earnings stock reaction for Workday. Market pricing may begin even before earnings are reported. Historical data comparing Workday’s post-earnings performance with peers that reported just prior is essential for analysis.

WDAY Correlation With Peer Earnings

The insights above can guide investors as they strategize for Workday’s upcoming earnings report. Understanding these trends and metrics will be key to making informed trading decisions.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.