On Monday, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down by $0.55 (-0.15%), following a 3.5-month high earlier in the day. Meanwhile, September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) did not trade due to a bank holiday in the UK. The decline in arabica prices was attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar, prompting profit-taking and long liquidation.
Concerns over Brazil’s coffee crop, attributed to a lack of rain and frost damage, supported recent price rallies. Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports fell by 20.4% year-on-year to 161,000 metric tons, with green coffee exports also decreasing by 28% year-on-year. Additionally, arabica inventories in ICE fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags on August 14, recovering slightly to 729,934 bags on Monday.
In contrast, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is nearly complete, reported at 99% as of August 20, indicating a bearish outlook for prices. The International Coffee Organization noted a 7.3% year-on-year increase in global coffee exports for June, while cumulative exports from October to June fell by 0.2% year-on-year to 104.14 million bags.
