On Wednesday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed down by 1.05% at -3.10, while September robusta coffee (RMU25) rose by 1.97% to +66. Arabica prices were pressured after U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicated that Brazil’s coffee beans might be exempt from tariffs, alleviating supply concerns. Brazilian coffee exports for June fell 31% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags, with arabica exports down 27% to 1.8 million bags.
Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op reported its harvest was 67% complete as of July 25, while USDA projected Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production to rise to 65 million bags, a 0.5% increase year-over-year. Robust coffee prices were supported by dry weather predictions in Vietnam after forecasts eliminated rain chances for its coffee-producing regions. ICE-monitored robusta inventories hit a one-year high of 7,029 lots.
The USDA forecasts a global arabica deficit for the 2025/26 marketing year of 8.5 million bags. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year is expected to decline by 20% year-over-year to 1.472 million metric tons due to drought conditions.
