September arabica coffee (KCU26) fell by 2.75 cents (-0.84%) on Thursday, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) rose by 7 cents (+0.19%). The fluctuation in coffee prices emerged amid concerns that continued dry weather in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions could accelerate the ongoing coffee harvest.
As of July 24, Brazil’s coffee harvest among Cooxupe co-op members was 58.3% complete, trailing the previous year’s pace of 67%. Additionally, ICE arabica coffee inventories hit a 2.5-year low at 266,204 bags, while robusta inventories reached a 4.25-month high at 4,254 lots, recorded last Wednesday. Forecasts indicate a 6% increase in global coffee production for the 2026-27 season to a record 189.7 million bags, driven primarily by improved growing conditions in Brazil.
The anticipated El Niño weather pattern poses potential risks to Brazil’s coffee crop for the 2026-27 season, with reports suggesting it may lead to adverse weather impacts during critical blooming periods. Meanwhile, robusta prices face pressure from rising coffee exports in Vietnam, projected to increase by 7.3% year-over-year to 1.05 million metric tons for the first half of 2026.
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