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As of today, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) prices have dropped by 4.90 cents to $3.93, a decline of 1.23%, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) has increased by 20 cents, or 0.45%. Coffee futures experienced liquidation following updated weather forecasts predicting rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, affecting market sentiments on the crop.
Key market dynamics indicate that Brazil’s arabica coffee-growing area of Minas Gerais received just 20.2 mm of rain during the week ending October 11, which is 48% below the historical average. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a global coffee export rise of 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, highlighting adequate supplies despite tightening ICE arabica inventories now at a 1.5-year low of 496,808 bags. Furthermore, the USDA projects a global coffee production increase of 2.5% for the 2025/26 season to a record 178.68 million bags, with Brazil’s production expected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year to 65 million bags.
In contrast, robusta coffee prices are under pressure due to increased supplies from Vietnam, where exports surged by 10.9% year-on-year to 1.230 MMT in January-September 2025. Vietnam’s anticipated 2025/26 coffee production is projected at 1.76 MMT, or 29.4 million bags, a 4-year high, contrasting Brazil’s declining output forecast of 35.2 million bags for the same period.
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