As of today, July arabica coffee (KCN26) is down 1.50 points (-0.50%) while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) is up 28 points (+0.76%). Coffee prices have fluctuated, with arabica falling to a 7-week low due to expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop projected at 75.9 million bags for 2026/27, exceeding earlier projections. In contrast, robusta prices are being supported by tighter supplies, with ICE robusta inventories hitting a 16-month low of 3,755 lots.
Vietnam’s coffee exports for early 2026 have increased by 14% year-over-year, totaling 585,000 MT, which may negatively impact robusta prices. Additionally, Brazil’s coffee exports for March fell 10% year-over-year to 2.65 million bags, adding support to coffee prices. However, below-average rainfall in Brazil could diminish yields, with recent reports indicating only 20% of the historical average rainfall in the key Minas Gerais region.
Market influences include potential disruptions in global coffee supplies due to geopolitical tensions affecting shipping rates and overall costs. The International Coffee Organization also noted a minor decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, reflecting the complex interplay of supply pressures in the coffee market.
