On July 14, 2023, coffee prices closed mixed, with September arabica coffee (KCU25) down 1.17% at -3.60 and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) up 1.09% at +36. Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was reported at 77% complete as of July 16, surpassing the previous year’s 74% and the 5-year average of 69%.
Robusta coffee inventories reached a 10-month high of 5,995 lots on Friday, contributing to price pressures alongside increased arabica inventories, which fell to a 2.5-month low of 814,055 bags. Brazil’s green coffee exports dropped 31% year-on-year in June, leading to tighter supply dynamics.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent announcement of a potential 50% tariff on US imports from Brazil, effective August 1, raised concerns about supply disruptions. The USDA forecasts a 2.5% increase in global coffee production for the 2025/26 marketing year, with projected arabica deficits widening to -8.5 million bags.
