May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed down 0.18% on Wednesday, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) rose 0.80%. The decline in arabica prices is attributed to expectations of a record crop in Brazil, projected by Marex Group Plc at 75.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, a 15.5% increase year-over-year. In contrast, robusta coffee prices were supported by a decrease in supplies, with ICE robusta inventories falling to a 3.5-month low of 4,093 lots.
Weather conditions in Brazil are contributing to fluctuating prices, with below-normal rainfall reported, particularly in Minas Gerais, where only 47% of the historical average was recorded last week. Meanwhile, Brazil’s green coffee exports fell by 27% year-over-year in February, totaling 2.3 million bags.
Global coffee production is projected to reach a record 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season, according to Rabobank, with Brazil’s output anticipated to increase significantly. However, robusta prices may face downward pressure from rising coffee exports from Vietnam, which have surged 14% year-over-year to 366,000 MT in early 2026.
