On January 18, 2023, coffee prices showed mixed trends: March arabica coffee (KCH26) fell by 1.57% to close at -5.50, while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) rose by 0.82%, gaining +34. This divergence is attributed to differing weather forecasts in key coffee-growing regions; steady rains are expected in Brazil’s Minas Gerais, while Vietnam’s Central Highlands anticipate limited showers.
As of January 14, ICE-monitored arabica inventories increased to 461,829 bags from a low of 398,645 bags in November. Brazil’s coffee production estimate for 2025 was raised by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. However, December green coffee exports from Brazil fell by 18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with robusta exports down 61% year-over-year. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports rose by 17.5% y/y to 1.58 million metric tons, with a projected production increase of 6% to 1.76 million metric tons.
The USDA forecasts that world coffee production will rise by 2% in 2025/26 to a record 178.848 million bags, while Brazil’s output is expected to decline by 3.1% to 63 million bags. Global coffee ending stocks are projected to decrease by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags.
