On Tuesday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed down by 2.72% at a contract low, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) increased by 1.10%. The decline in arabica prices was attributed to improved rainfall conditions in Brazil, easing dryness concerns. Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, received 5 mm of rain in the week ending June 28, amounting to 714% of the historical average.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Brazil’s coffee production for the 2025/26 year to rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is expected to increase by 6.9% to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op noted that the coffee harvest as of June 20 was only 24.3% complete this year, down from 34.2% in the previous year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s green coffee exports in May fell by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags.
