As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU25) rose by +2.70 (+0.92%) and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) increased by +4 (+0.12%). Coffee prices are improving due to tariff risks after President Trump postponed the implementation of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports by a week, raising concerns about a potential price spike and supply disruptions from Brazil, the largest arabica producer.
Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op reported that its coffee harvest was 67% complete as of July 25, while Safras & Mercado indicated that Brazil’s overall coffee harvest was 84% complete, surpassing the previous year’s 81% and the five-year average of 77%. Robusta coffee faces additional support from crop concerns in Vietnam, where ongoing drought has led to a projected -20% decrease in production this year, marking the smallest crop in four years.
ICE-monitored inventories for robusta coffee reached a one-year high of 7,029 lots, while arabica inventories fell to a three-and-a-half-month low of 775,476 bags. Brazil’s green coffee exports in June fell by -31% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags, indicating tighter supplies that could push prices higher.
