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On Friday, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed up +0.05 (+0.01%), while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) fell -101 (-2.18%). This mixed settlement followed a significant drop in ICE arabica coffee inventories, which hit a 19.5-month low of 431,728 bags. Concurrently, robusta prices faced pressure due to increased coffee supplies from Vietnam, which reported a 10.9% year-on-year rise in coffee exports to 1.230 million metric tons and projected a 6% increase in coffee production for 2025/26 to 1.76 million metric tons.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated a 71% chance of a La Niña weather pattern affecting Brazil from October to December, potentially exacerbating dry conditions that threaten the 2026/27 coffee crop. Brazil’s Minas Gerais, a major arabica coffee region, received only 0.3 mm of rain last week, 1% of the historical average. U.S. coffee buyers are refraining from new contracts against Brazilian imports due to a current 50% tariff, tightening supplies.
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