**Coffee Market Update – January 2, 2024**
On January 2, 2024, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed up +2.05 (+0.57%), while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) declined by -36 (-0.91%). Robusta coffee prices fell to a one-week low due to strong exports from Vietnam, which saw a 17.5% year-over-year increase in coffee exports, reaching 1.58 million metric tons for 2025.
In Brazil, below-average rainfall is impacting coffee production, with Minas Gerais receiving only 67% of its historical average, contributing to support for arabica prices. The USDA’s bi-annual report projects Brazil’s 2025 coffee production will decline by 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is forecasted to rise to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags. National coffee inventories continue to tighten, with ICE arabica inventories recently dropping to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags.
