On July 12, arabica coffee prices rose by 3.73% to close at +11.10, while robusta coffee prices increased by 0.56%, closing at +19. This surge was influenced by dry weather in Brazil, particularly in the major coffee-growing region of Minas Gerais, which received no rain that week.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is currently at 49.3% completion as of July 11, according to the Cooxupe coffee co-op, which is Brazil’s largest exporter. Additionally, the USDA projected a record global coffee production of 178.68 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year, despite a forecasted arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags.
Robusta coffee inventories on ICE reached a 10-month high of 5,611 lots, while arabica inventories decreased to 821,463 bags as of July 12. The price fluctuations have been compounded by adverse weather conditions in Vietnam, where coffee production has dropped by 20% year-over-year due to drought.
