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On October 10, 2023, arabica coffee prices jumped to a 3.5-week high, closing up +14.45 (+3.75%) at $397.15, while robusta coffee prices fell -73 (-1.40%) to $5,149. The surge in arabica prices is attributed to severe dry conditions in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, which received only 20.2 mm of rain—48% of the historical average—impacting the critical flowering phase of the 2026/27 crop.
Simultaneously, robusta prices are pressured by anticipated abundant rainfall in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, expected to exceed historical averages with 70 mm of rain forecasted. Additionally, ICE arabica inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 496,808 bags and ICE robusta inventories dropped to a 2.75-month low of 6,228 lots. Brazil’s coffee exports plummeted by 28% in July to 2.7 million bags and by 21% during the January-July period, totaling 22.2 million bags for 2023.
Despite these pressures, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight increase in global coffee exports for 2023, rising 0.2% year-over-year to 127.92 million bags. The USDA projects a record global coffee production of 178.68 million bags for 2025/26, with robusta production in Vietnam projected to increase by 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 MMT.
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