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On Thursday, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down 1.10 cents (-0.28%), while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) rose 72 cents (+1.59%). The mixed settlement comes amid speculation about a potential suspension of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports following a meeting between Brazil’s Foreign Minister Vieira and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio.
ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 1.5-year low of 493,783 bags, while robusta inventories dropped to a 2.75-month low of 6,177 lots. The 50% tariffs on U.S. imports from Brazil have led American buyers to avoid new contracts for Brazilian coffee, tightening U.S. supplies as approximately one-third of America’s unroasted coffee originates from Brazil. Brazil’s coffee production outlook is also challenged due to severe dry conditions in Minas Gerais and forecasts from Conab indicating a reduced crop estimate.
In contrast, robusta prices may face downward pressure with Vietnam’s expected increase in coffee production. The Vietnam National Statistics Office reported a 10.9% rise year-over-year in coffee exports for January-September 2025, indicating adequate global coffee supplies amid a projected robust production climb in Vietnam.
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