On March 16, arabica coffee prices increased by 1.05%, closing at +3.90, while robusta coffee prices fell by 0.26%, closing down -15. Key factors influencing these price movements include a report from Brazil’s exporter group Cecafe indicating a 27% year-over-year decline in November green coffee exports to 3.3 million bags.
Brazil experienced below-normal precipitation, with Minas Gerais receiving only 11 mm of rain during the week ending December 5, about 17% of the historical average. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 39% year-over-year to 88,000 MT in November, contributing to downward pressure on robusta prices.
ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20 before recovering to 426,523 bags last Friday. Robust coffee inventories faced declines as well, reaching an 11.5-month low of 4,012 lots. The USDA projects global coffee production for 2025/26 to rise by 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags, highlighting a significant increase in robusta coffee output.
