On Thursday, July NY world sugar #11 closed at $13.88, down $0.21 (-1.49%), marking a one-month low, while August London ICE white sugar #5 fell to $426.10, down $4.10 (-0.95%). This decline was influenced by a report from Unica indicating that Brazil’s Center-South sugar production is projected to increase by 55.3% year-on-year to 2.475 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 season.
Additionally, Thailand’s sugar exports surged by 29% year-on-year to 1.6 MMT from January to April 2026, further pressuring global prices. The International Sugar Organization forecasted a record global sugar crop of 182 MMT for the 2025/26 season, with an estimated surplus of 2.2 MMT, rebounding from a deficit of 3.46 MMT in 2024/25.
Concerns over potential disruptions from an El Niño event, which could decrease rainfall in key producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand, support the notion of tighter future supplies. The NOAA indicates an 82% probability of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July, lasting through year-end.
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