Coffee prices surged on September 26, 2023, with September arabica coffee (KCU26) rising 6.71% to close at +18.65 and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) up 2.64% to +94. This increase follows heavy rains in Brazil, particularly in Minas Gerais, which recorded 31.3 mm of rain—1,956% above the historical average—disrupting the coffee harvest and raising concerns about crop quality.
ICE arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 2.25-year low of 377,465 bags, while ICE robusta inventories reached a 2.75-month high of 4,053 lots. Additionally, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has estimated a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could further threaten Brazil’s coffee production in the upcoming 2026/27 season.
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