As of today, July NY world sugar #11 is down 2.61% to $14.20, marking a one-month low, while August London ICE white sugar #5 has decreased by 1.53% to $431.20. The decline is attributed to increased sugar production in Brazil, with Unica reporting a 55.3% year-over-year rise in the 2026/27 sugar output to 2.475 million metric tons in April, driven by improved yields.
Concerns over a global sugar surplus are exacerbated by declining crude oil prices, making sugar production more favorable than ethanol. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar production of 182 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, alongside a forecasted surplus of 2.2 million metric tons. In contrast, potential impacts from the El Niño weather pattern could disrupt harvests in leading sugar-producing regions like Brazil and India.
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