As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU25) has decreased by 3.60 (1.21%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) has increased by 59 (+1.76%). This mixed movement comes as robusta coffee reaches a two-week high due to forecasts of dry weather in Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta coffee. Conversely, arabica prices are pressured after the U.S. Commerce Secretary indicated that tariffs on Brazilian coffee beans might not be implemented, alleviating supply concerns.
Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee cooperative reported that its harvest is 67% complete as of July 25, while overall Brazilian coffee harvests for 2025/26 are 84% complete, which is ahead of last year’s 81% and the 5-year average of 77%. Rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region exceeded historical averages, though overall coffee production from Vietnam is projected to drop by 20% year-on-year for 2023/24 due to drought conditions.
Recent reports indicated a significant drop in Brazil’s June coffee exports, with a year-over-year decline of 31%. On the supply side, the USDA projects a record global coffee production of 178.68 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year, despite anticipated deficits in arabica coffee of 8.5 million bags.
