As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU25) rose by +6.35 (+1.85%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) increased by +168 (+4.04%). Coffee prices have reached a 2.25-month high for arabica and a 2-month high for robusta, largely driven by weather concerns in Brazil, where key coffee-growing region Minas Gerais experienced no rain during the week ending August 16.
Recent data shows that Brazil’s July unroasted coffee exports dropped by 20.4% year-over-year to 161,000 metric tons, and the country’s green coffee exports fell by 28% year-over-year to 2.4 million bags. Furthermore, ICE-monitored arabica inventories are currently at a 1.25-year low of 733,105 bags, indicating tighter supply conditions in the U.S. market.
In contrast, the harvest in Brazil is reportedly 94% complete as of August 6, with robusta harvests at 99% and arabica at 91%. Additionally, Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year is projected to decline by 20% year-over-year to 1.472 million metric tons, marking the smallest crop in four years.
