### Coffee Market Update
On Friday, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) fell by $2.45 (0.85%), while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) decreased by $29 (0.82%). Brazil’s total coffee exports in August surged 31% year-over-year to a record 4.155 million bags, driven by a 26% increase in arabica exports to 2.87 million bags and a 54% rise in robusta exports to 953,592 bags.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected a record global coffee production of 183.6 million bags for the 2025/26 season, marking a surplus of 3 million bags due to a 0.9% decline in consumption. Conversely, the latest USDA forecast predicts global coffee output for the 2026-27 season will increase by 6.0% to 189.7 million bags, mainly due to expected improvements in Brazil. Concerns around an El Niño weather pattern potentially affecting Brazil’s crop further complicate the market outlook.
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