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As of today, December arabica coffee prices are down 0.05%, while January ICE robusta coffee is up 5.97% (+252). Coffee price fluctuations are influenced by ongoing US tariffs on Brazilian coffee, especially a 40% tariff imposed by the Trump administration. This tariff has remained despite a recent announcement about dropping certain tariffs on other commodities.
Brazil’s weather has also played a role, with the Minas Gerais region receiving just 19.8 mm of rain last week, which is 42% of the historical average. In contrast, StoneX forecasts Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026/27 season at 70.7 million bags, marking a 29% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, Vietnamese coffee exports have risen 13.4% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons, highlighting a bearish trend for coffee prices as global supply increases.
Additionally, ICE-monitored arabica inventories have hit a 1.75-year low of 403,190 bags, while robusta coffee inventories have fallen to a 3.75-month low of 5,723 lots. Notably, US purchases of Brazilian coffee dropped by 52% from August through October compared to the prior year, corresponding with new tariffs that led to reduced supply and tighter market conditions.
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