On July 19, coffee prices declined sharply, with September arabica coffee (KCU25) falling by 3.05% to $9.25 and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) dropping by 3.20% to $107. This decline is attributed to progress in Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest, which is 77% complete as of July 16, exceeding last year’s 74% and the 5-year average of 69%. A report by Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op indicated that its harvest was 49.3% complete by July 11.
Additional pressure on coffee prices comes from a surge in ICE-monitored inventories, with robusta inventories reaching a 10.75-month high of 6,243 lots. Meanwhile, Brazil’s total green coffee exports in June fell by 31% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags, including a 27% decline for arabica and a 42% drop for robusta.
Forecasts for the 2025/26 season project Brazil’s coffee production to rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s coffee output may increase by 6.9% to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. However, Vietnam’s current coffee production for 2023/24 has decreased by 20% due to drought conditions.
