On Friday, September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed up 2.46% to $7.70, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) rose 2.11% to $80, as coffee prices increased due to delays in Brazil’s coffee harvest. Safras & Mercado reported that as of July 15, Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is 64% complete, significantly trailing last year’s 77% and the five-year average of 70%.
Concerns over the El Niño weather pattern are contributing to rising coffee prices. The US Climate Prediction Center has indicated that this El Niño, expected to be one of the strongest in 75 years, may disrupt coffee production in Brazil, particularly during the critical flowering period in September and October. Additionally, ICE arabica coffee inventories have fallen to a 2.25-year low of 332,945 bags, while robusta inventories reached a 3.5-month high of 4,220 lots, further stressing supply.
Brazil’s coffee exports saw a 14.4% year-over-year rise in June, totaling 2.64 million bags. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports increased by 7.3% for the first half of 2026, highlighting a bearish trend for robusta prices.
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