As of today, July arabica coffee (KCN25) has decreased by $2.00 (0.58%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) has dropped by $27 (0.60%), reaching a 1-3/4 month low for arabica and a 7-month low for robusta. The decline is attributed to harvest pressures, with Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest reported at 20% completion as of May 28, just below the five-year average of 21%.
According to a USDA forecast, Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags. Current ICE inventories for robusta coffee have surged to an 8-1/2 month high of 5,438 lots, indicating growing supply pressures amidst bearish demand outlooks due to potential tariffs affecting major importers, including Starbucks and Hershey.
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