**Coffee Prices Decline Amid Harvest Concerns**
As of today, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) has fallen by 4.35% to $14.60, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) has decreased by 2.30% to $85 as the market reacts to increased supply expectations from Brazil’s coffee harvest. Currently, Brazil’s Cooxupe co-op reports that 87.5% of the coffee harvest is complete, up 6 points from the previous week but still trailing last year’s 91.3%.
**Supply and Inventory Updates**
ICE arabica coffee inventories have reached a 2.75-year low of 225,442 bags, while robusta inventories surged to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots. Falling inventories of arabica support its prices, whereas rising inventories of robusta place downward pressure. In Colombia, a recent earthquake impacted coffee-growing regions Caldas and Risaralda, which comprise about a quarter of the country’s production. Although Colombia has partially resumed coffee exports, operations remain limited.
**Forecast and Production Impact**
The USDA predicts that global coffee production for the 2026-27 season may rise by 6% to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved conditions in Brazil. However, concerns around an El Niño weather pattern could disrupt Brazil’s future coffee yields by delaying essential rainfall, affecting tree flowering. Additionally, Vietnam’s coffee exports for 2026 have soared by 21.1% year-on-year, further influencing robusta prices negatively.
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