As of today, October NY world sugar #11 is down 0.18 cents (-1.10%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 is down 7.50 cents (-1.56%) amid forecasts removing frost risks in Brazil and an early monsoon in India that is expected to boost sugar crop yields. Rainfall in India during June was 9% above normal, with the India Meteorological Department predicting above-normal rainfall for July.
Significant market developments include a 7.5 million metric ton (MMT) global sugar surplus forecast for the 2025/26 season, the largest in eight years, according to commodities trader Czarnikow. Additionally, the USDA projects global sugar production to reach a record 189.318 MMT, up 4.7% year-over-year, while India’s sugar production alone could rise 19% year-over-year to 35 MMT.
In Brazil, cumulative sugar output for the 2025/26 season has declined by 14.6% year-over-year to 9.404 MMT as of mid-June, impacted by adverse weather conditions. The International Sugar Organization has also raised its forecast for the 2024/25 global sugar deficit to a nine-year high of 5.47 MMT, reflecting a tightening market following a surplus in the previous year.
