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On Thursday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) both closed up by +22.70 (+4.95%) following a frost scare in Brazil. This rally came as prices matched a previous low but saw a quick recovery driven by short-covering.
According to projections by commodities trader Czarnikow, a global sugar surplus of 7.5 million metric tons (MMT) is expected for the 2025/26 season, marking the largest surplus in eight years. In addition, the USDA forecasts a record global sugar production of 189.318 MMT for 2025/26, with ending stocks estimated at 41.188 MMT, a 7.5% increase year-on-year.
In Brazil, Center-South sugar output is down by -14.6% year-on-year to 9.404 MMT as of mid-June, with previous estimates by Conab indicating that production for the 2024/25 season may decrease by -3.4% year-on-year to 44.118 MMT due to adverse weather conditions.
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