On Tuesday, July arabica coffee prices closed down by $1.40 (-0.54%), hitting a 1.5-year low, while July ICE robusta coffee increased by $0.24 (+0.70%). This mixed performance is fueled by forecasts of drier weather in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, which will help resume the delayed harvest following last week’s heavy rains.
Key projections for Brazil’s upcoming coffee harvest indicate a significant increase: May 7 forecasts predict a 12% year-over-year rise to 71.4 million bags, while other estimates suggest a record yield of up to 75.9 million bags for 2026/27. Conversely, Brazilian green coffee exports fell by 1.3% year-over-year in April, totalling 2.76 million bags, adding upward pressure on prices. Global coffee inventories have generally declined, with ICE arabica coffee stocks hitting a 3.5-month low of 432,781 bags.
Potential disruptions from the El Niño weather pattern may affect future crops, with NOAA indicating an 82% chance of conditions emerging by mid-year. Additionally, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further strained global coffee supply chains, increasing costs for importers and contributing to the price volatility.
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