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On Wednesday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down by 12.85 cents (-3.31%), while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) fell by 57 cents (-1.25%). This decline in coffee prices is attributed to anticipated rains in Brazil, which are expected to benefit coffee crop development. Climatempo has forecasted heavy rainfall for Brazil’s coffee-growing regions towards the end of this week and into next week.
Brazil’s coffee exports to the U.S. remain subject to a 40% tariff, despite the Trump administration lifting some tariffs recently. U.S. purchases of Brazilian coffee dropped by 52% year-on-year from August to October 2025, totaling 983,970 bags. Additionally, ICE arabica inventories have reached a 1.75-year low at 396,513 bags, while robusta inventories fell to a 4-month low of 5,648 lots.
Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to October 2025 increased by 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons, with projections suggesting a production rise to 1.76 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season. The International Coffee Organization has reported a 0.3% yearly decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags.
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