March arabica coffee (KCH26) decreased by $0.40 (-0.12%) and robusta coffee (RMH26) fell by $0.56 (-1.37%) today, attributed to rain forecasts for Brazil, particularly in Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-growing region. The Weather Channel predicts daily showers this week.
ICE-monitored arabica inventories rose to 461,829 bags, a 2.5-month high, while robusta inventories reached 4,532 lots today, recovering from recent lows. Brazil’s December green coffee exports decreased by 18.4% year-over-year to 2.86 million bags, with robusta exports plummeting 61% year-over-year.
In contrast, Vietnamese coffee exports for 2025 surged 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, with production projected to increase 6% year-over-year to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, adding bearish pressure on global coffee prices.
