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As of today, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) has fallen by 3.35% to $13.85, while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) is down 3.24% to $152. The decline in coffee prices is primarily attributed to favorable weather forecasts in Brazil, which have alleviated concerns over drought conditions.
In Vietnam, coffee exports for January to October 2025 increased by 13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons, with predicted production for 2025/26 expected to rise by 6% year-on-year to 1.76 million metric tons. Shrinking ICE coffee inventories are also influencing prices, with arabica stocks dropping to a 1.75-year low of 429,770 bags and robusta inventories falling to a 3.5-month low of 6,030 lots.
Global coffee production is projected to hit a record 178.68 million bags in 2025/26, according to the USDA, with a 2.5% year-on-year increase. However, the arabica production is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 97.022 million bags, while robusta production is expected to rise by 7.9% to 81.658 million bags.
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