As of today, March arabica coffee (KCH26) has decreased by $14.00 (4.20%), and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) has dropped by $193 (4.79%). This decline marks a continuation of a week-long drop, with arabica prices reaching a 5.5-month low and robusta prices hitting a 6-week low.
The downward trend in coffee prices is attributed to significant rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary coffee-growing area, which alleviates dryness concerns. Reports indicate that this region received 69.8 mm of rain in the week ending January 30, surpassing the historical average by 117%. Meanwhile, Brazil’s total coffee production estimate for 2025 was raised by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, and Vietnam’s coffee exports are expected to rise by 17.5% year-on-year to 1.58 million metric tons in 2025.
Additionally, coffee inventories monitored by the ICE have shown a recent recovery, contributing to downward pressure on prices. Recent figures indicate that arabica inventories rose to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags, while robusta inventories increased to a 2-month high of 4,662 lots. Brazil reported a decline in December green coffee exports, down 18.4% to 2.86 million bags, suggesting tighter global supplies may soon support coffee prices.
