On July 10, 2023, sugar prices rebounded after initial losses, with NY world sugar #11 closing at +0.39 (+2.42%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 closing at +14.50 (+3.12%). The recovery was influenced by a rise in the Brazilian real, which reached an 8-1/4 month high against the dollar, limiting Brazilian sugar exports.
Despite the recent gains, sugar prices have generally fallen over the past 2-1/2 months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. The USDA projected on May 22 that 2025/26 global sugar production would rise by +4.7% year-over-year to a record 189.318 million metric tons, accompanied by a surplus of 41.188 million metric tons, up 7.5% year-over-year. Additionally, India’s sugar production is expected to increase by +19% to 35 million metric tons due to larger planted cane acreage and favorable monsoon conditions.
In Brazil, sugar production has faced declines, with cumulative output through May down -11.6% year-over-year. The International Sugar Organization has also raised its global sugar deficit forecast for 2024/25 to a 9-year high of -5.47 million metric tons, indicating a tightening market following previous surpluses.
