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As of October, NY world sugar #11 (SBV24) is up +0.02 (+0.11%), while Oct London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV24) remains unchanged. Sugar prices have stabilized after hitting one-week lows due to a stronger Brazilian real, which is up +0.21% today, discouraging export selling from Brazilian sugar producers.
Brazil’s Center-South sugar production for the marketing year ending July 2023 increased by +8% year-on-year to 20.753 million metric tons (MMT). Projections for the 2024/25 season estimate a record production of 46.292 MMT, up +1.3% year-on-year, attributed to a 4.1% increase in sugar acreage. In India, monsoon rains have been above average, with 579.7 mm recorded as of mid-August, potentially leading to a bumper sugar crop, which may further impact sugar prices negatively.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has raised its global sugar deficit estimate for 2023/24 to -2.95 MMT and increased its global demand estimate to 182.2 MMT. The USDA expects that global sugar production will rise by +1.4% year-on-year to a record 186.024 MMT for 2024/25, with consumption projected to increase by +0.8% to 178.788 MMT.
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