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On Friday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed at +0.07 (+0.46%), reaching a 5-week high, while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) declined by -1.00 (-0.23%). The Brazilian real’s strength, rising to a 1-week high against the dollar, has influenced sugar prices by discouraging export sales from Brazil, a major sugar producer.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons (MT) for 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25, attributed to increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. In particular, the Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 production forecast to 31 MT, increasing by +18.8% year-over-year, while Thailand’s production is expected to rise by +5% to 10.5 MT.
Additionally, the USDA forecasts global sugar production to reach a record 189.318 million MT for 2025/26, up +4.7% year-over-year, with human consumption rising by +1.4% to a record 177.921 million MT. Brazil’s sugar production is anticipated to be 44.7 MT, while India’s is expected to increase to 35.3 MT, driven by favorable conditions.
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